FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW 01.10.12

Events in Spain are dragging down the whole world economy

 

Spanish factor became a symbol of instability in the global crisis and replaced the Greece. 

The growth of protest moods and unwillingness of Madrid to have recourse to the financial support of the European Fund of stability and of the ECB, more and more destabilizing the situation.

An additional negative factors are the results of stress tests of national banks. "IFS audit" - independent audit showed that Spain's banking sector will require about 60 billion euros of additional funds to cope with the economic downturn. But thus the Spanish authorities have said they will ask for the help of banks, only 40 billion market participants believe that such aid is small and on this background, today the single currency continues to decline.

 

Despite evidence of an increase in business activity in the industry in China PMI in September from 49.2 to 49.8, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the problems in the Australian economy is continuing, which could lead to a reduction in business activity in the manufacturing sector. The business activity index fell from 1.2 points to 44.1 points. Value is below the level of 50 points, which shows the reduction of activity. A general picture of the economy could lead to further reduction in key interest rates.

Today investors will be focused on the speech Bernanke. Market participants want to hear the first results of a new program of quantitative easing. A major event of the week will be the publication of data on employment in the U.S., which will be published on Friday.

We can say in general that the picture of uncertainty will continue for some time yet and most likely, lateral trend in the forex market will continue.

 

Statistics for today:

Moscow time

Switzerland 11.15 Retail sales in August n / a; 4,1% y / y, 3.2% y / y

11.30 Switzerland Index of business activity from September SVME n / a; 47,6; 46,7

12.00 Eurozone Final data on the index of business activity in the industry in September n / a; 46,0; 46,0

12.30 UK index of business activity in the industry in September n / a; 49,5; 49,5

12.30 UK change in total private lending in August n / a; 0,7 billion pounds, 0.9 billion pounds

12:30 UK M4 money supply August n / a; 0,7% m / m and 0.5% m / m

12.30 UK Number of approved applications for mortgage loan in August n / a; 50.000; 47.000

13.00 Eurozone unemployment rate in August n / a; 11,4%; 11,3%

16.30 Canada price index for natural resources to manufacturers in August n / a; 1,4% m / m and 0.9% m / m

16.30 Canada price index for manufactured goods in August n / a; 0,1% m / m, -0.5% m / m

17.00 U.S. Final data on the index of business activity in the industry in September n / a; 51,5; 51,5

18.00 U.S. index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from September ISM n / a; 49,8; 49,6

18.00 U.S. Expenditures for construction in August n / a; 0,6% m / m, -0.9% m / m

18.00 U.S. producer price index from September ISM n / a; 55,6; 54,0

20.00 U.S. President's speech in San Francisco Fed Dzh.Uilyamsa

20.30 U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Speech