FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW 27.09.12

 

A holy place is never empty

 

Spanish issue with great force swooped down on the world market, causing new concerns that the recession in the European economy burying the entire global economy. The growing political tension in Spain amid reluctance to resort to the financial assistance of the European Stability Fund and the ECB finally plunged into depression and investors forced to sell risky assets. If until recently bogey instability was Greece, it took place successfully Pyrenees republic.

Spanish unwillingness to take the financial assistance is clear, as it will in fact took of independence in the financial area from Madrid, that's why the prime-minister eclared that he would not ask for help until government bonds is not significantly increased. But the markets heard it completely "worked" to the premier, returning yield on 10-year government bonds to a higher level of 6%. Which points to the fact that Madrid will have to take care and wear the yoke of iron grip IMF.

Today, all eyes will be on view in Spain for the next budget year, and the GDP forecast from the Spanish government for the next year. Today, market participants will be expected to publish the results of stress tests of independent Spanish banks.

Start a debate about the effectiveness of QE 3, and Spanish events overshadowed the Fed's actions, which led to a decrease in the yield of 10-year bonds to the level of 1.63%, which fully reflects the concerns of investors.

 

Against the background of the tumultuous events of recent days, investor activity has fallen markedly, and the U.S. dollar were encouraged to grow along with the Japanese yen. But if the situation will be stabilized around Spain, and statistics from the eurozone and the U.S. will not be worse than expected, it could lead to a local weakening of the U.S. dollar and the increase in short-term tendency of investors to the risky game.

 

Events today:

Moscow time

Germany 11.55 Changing the number of unemployed in August n / a; 10,000; 9,000

12.00 Eurozone M3 money supply August n / a; 3,3% y / y, 3.8% y / y

12.00 Eurozone private sector lending in August n / a; 0,1% y / y and 0.1% y / y

12.10 Eurozone business activity in the retail sector in September n / a; n / a; 44,4

12.30 UK Final figures for Q2 GDP growth. 2012 n / a; -0,5% q / q, -0.5% q / q

12.30 UK balance of payments Q2. 2012 n / a; -12,2 billion pounds -11.2 billion pounds

12.30 UK Revised data on business investment Q2. 2012 n / a; -1,5% q / q, 1.5% q / q

Basic index of 16.30 U.S. orders for durable goods in August n / a; 0,2% m / m, -0.6% m / m

16.30 U.S. The number of applications for unemployment benefits for the week of September 16-22, n / a; 378,000; 382,000

16.30 U.S. orders for durable goods in August n / a; -4,3% m / m, 4.1% y / y

16.30 U.S. Final figures for Q2 GDP growth. 2012 n / a; 1,7% q / q and 1.7% q / q

16.30 U.S. Final figures for Q2 GDP deflator. 2012 n / a; 1,6% q / q and 1.6% q / q

18.00 Outstanding U.S. home sales in August n / a; -0,7% m / m, 2.4% y / y

18:30 U.S. natural gas reserves for the week September 16-22, n / a; n / a; 67 Bcf