FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW 24.09.12

Investors became pessimistic again...

 

World markets fully played out the idea of ​​quantitative easing in one or another form from the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan and are back to the realization that the world economy is still in recession because of raging European debt crisis, which is already evident for a long time will be delayed. The World Trade Organization (WTO) against this background lowered its forecast for growth in trade this year to 2.5%.

 

"The main reason for the slowdown is, of course, Europe" - said WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy. - "We also see that the slowing U.S., Japan is also in bad shape." (Bloomberg)

 

Persistence of Spain in adopting financial assistance from three lenders continues to negatively impact on investor sentiment, as the probability of new negative trends constantly hanging and do not give markets forget about it.

 

End of the financial year in the U.S. leads to an increase in volatility in the markets, which, obviously, will last until the end of the month. Moreover, market participants interested in the result of the first, if not the full, three months of QE from the Fed, which may also have an impact on the market.

 

In the currency market correction continues with strengthening of the U.S. dollar, but according to the dynamics of a pair of Eurodollar, players are not confident that you can continue to sell-wide pair. Couple quite grown in anticipation of stimulus from the ECB and the Fed, and from a technical point of view, any superficial correction is normal.

 

Commodity currencies have also continued to decline today due to the correction in the commodity market, which continues against the background of the authorities of the PRC that the stage loose monetary policy over. But knowing China policy should be aware that the mood there may change at any moment.

 

Today will be interesting data from Germany. Good statistics locally to support the euro.

 

Events today:

Moscow time

12.00 Germany Ifo business climate indicator in September n / a; 102,6; 102,3

23.00 Canada Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney

23.30 U.S. FOMC Statement member John Williams