FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW 11.09.12

Markets are consolidating before the Fed meeting

 

Market participants expect the results of the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market, which begins today. After the release of weak statistics to the U.S. labor market, which was released last Friday, the markets raised in the hope that this meeting will still decided to launch new stimulus programs.

In the currency market for the second day is celebrated on the eve of the weak dynamics of the Fed meeting. Poor statistics of the United States not only increased the probability of a new phase of quantitative easing, but it makes it pretty likely. If Bernanke earlier said only that the Fed is ready at any time, if it is necessary "to enable the printing press," so tomorrow he can no longer be a subject to talk about. And this, of course, will support trade, commodities and stock markets. But the U.S. dollar will be under intense pressure and will turn back into the currency of funding, which will be beneficial to take to buy risky assets.

Today, the market situation remains generally calm. Players remain out of the purchases and sales of assets previously purchased.

Today we should pay attention to data on the trade balance. Negative data can have a local pressure on the U.S. dollar.

 

Events today:

Moscow time

16.15 Canada Construction August n / a; 206,000; 209,000

16.30 Canada trade balance in July n / a; -1,5 billion kan.doll; -1.8 billion

16:30 U.S. July trade balance n / a; -44,2 billion; -42.9 billion.

18.00 U.S. economic optimism index IBD / TIPP September n / a; 47,3; 45,6

21.15 Great Presentations by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England Miles

 

Sergei Kostenko