FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW 07.09.12

Today, all the attention to data from the U.S.

 

Market reaction to the decision of the board of governors of the ECB to buy the unlimited quantities of short-term bonds to 3 years, caused a rally in global stock markets. In general, investors have been confirmed with the leakage of the likely actions of the ECB, which was filling the markets. Now it is important to publish a press release which will include details of the action of the European Central Bank.

 

As for the situation in the markets, on the eve of the publication of important data on employment in the United States, the foreign exchange market has ambiguous situation. Especially for a sold-out commodity currencies which are rising against the bad grown Chinese stock market and the expectations of a large amount of liquidity from the ECB. Australian dollar rises, despite of the weak economic statistics. The index of business activity in the construction sector (from AIG) reached the level of 32.2 points versus 32.5 points of the predicted value. The trade balance was also not up to -0.56 billion dollars against 0.01 billion dollars, but inspite of this, the "Aussie" continues to rise in anticipation of new volumes of liquidity not only from the ECB, but from the Federal Reserve as well.

 

The single currency has stabilized after yesterday's volatile trading in anticipation of data from the U.S...

 

In general we can say that if the data on employment in the non-agricultural sector of the U.S. economy will be weaker than the forecast, it will be a strong signal for the Fed to launch new issue of incentives and will have a negative pressure on the U.S. dollar.

 

Events today:

Moscow time

11.00 Switzerland foreign exchange reserves in August n / a; n / a; 408,6 billion francs

Volume 

12.30 UK manufacturing output in July n / a; 2,1% m / m, -2.9% m / m

12.30 UK Producer Price Index in August n / a; 1,6% m / m, 1.3% y / y

12.30 UK expected consumer inflation n / a; n / a; 3,7%

12.30 UK industrial output in July n / a; 1,7% m / m, -2.5% m / m

12.30 UK Producer Price Index in August n / a; 0,3% m / m and 0.0% m / m

14.00 Germany's industrial production in July n / a; 0,1% m / m, -0.9% m / m

Canada 

16.30 Number of building permits in July n / a; -1,5% m / m, -2.5% m / m

16.30 Canada Changing the number of employed in August n / a; 9.900; -30.400

16.30 Canada unemployment rate in August n / a; 7,3%; 7,3%

16.30 Canada Productivity Q2. 2012 n / a; 0,2% q / q and 0.1% q / q

16:30 U.S. Change in number of employees (excluding agriculture) August n / a; 121.000; 163.000

16.30 U.S. unemployment rate in August n / a; 8,3%; 8,3%

16:30 U.S. Change in average hourly wages in August n / a; 0,2% m / m and 0.1% m / m

18.00 Canada Business Index from August Ivey n / a; 64,5; 62,8

18.00 Assessment of changes in UK NIESR GDP from June-August, n / a; n / a; -0,2%

19:40 Presentation Canada Governor of the Bank of Canada M.Karni n / an / an / a

 

Sergei Kostenko