FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW 04.09.12

FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW 04.09.12

 

Attention to data from the United States...

 

Lowering the credit rating outlook of EU’s "AAA" to negative agency Moody's Investors Service, may force the ECB to act more aggressively on the issue of the early redemption of debt securities in the active concern of European countries. Likely downgrade the credit ratings of the leading EU countries - Germany, France, Britain and the Netherlands must provide it. Besides the opposition of German officials to acts of ECB continues.

 

On the 12th of september Germany will vote on the legitimacy of actions of the ECB in the expected redemption of government debt securities of distressed European countries. It is expected that the German parliament will vote positively, thereby eliminated the last powerful obstacle that limits the action of the European Central Bank.

 

Central Bank of Australia left the rate unchanged at 3.5%, which had a stabilizing effect on the Australian dollar and halted its decline.

The single currency still continues to receive support, but its growth is likely to be bounded by the expectation of the ECB on economic incentives.

 

Today, the players' attention will be focused on the data index of manufacturing activity (ISM) in USA. Index is expected to come out at 50 points. If it would be worse than expected, it may be an additional signal for the Fed to launch a new quantitative easing, which means that today local dollar could come under pressure.

 

In general, the situation is still uncertain. Market participants continue to receive statistics on the basis “not worse, than good”. In other words, the worse are the statistics, the more likely new stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve would be increased.

 

Statistics for today:

Moscow time

12.30 UK index of business activity in the construction sector in August n / a; 50,1; 50,9

13.00 Eurozone Index of price producers in July n / a; 0,3% m / m, -0.5% m / m

17.00 U.S. Final data on the index of business activity in the industry in August n / a; 51,9; 51,9

18.00 U.S. index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the ISM August n / a; 50,1; 49,8

18.00 U.S. Expenditures for construction in July n / a; 0,4% m / m, 0.4% y / y

18.00 U.S. Index of price producers from August ISM n / a; 46,7; 39,5

allday  U.S. car sales year on year in August n / a; 14,1 million, 14.1 million