Euro Analysis 14.10.2021

The single currency, the euro, fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the downside during the Asian session, to witness its rebound from its top since the fifth of October against the US dollar, amid the scarcity of economic data by the economies of the euro area and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today, Thursday, by the largest American economy. Economy of the World which includes the speech of members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At exactly 06:30 am GMT, the euro against the US dollar fell by 0.03% to 1.1588 levels, compared to the opening levels at 1.1591, after the pair achieved its lowest level during the trading session at 1.1587, while it achieved its highest level in a week at 1.1601.

We have just followed the US economy Deputy Federal Reserve Governor and Federal Open Market Committee member Michael Bowman about monetary policy making and economic expectations in the Dickhuis Scholar Program Speaker Series on Money, Banking and Regulation in South Dakota, who expressed her support for the start of the Federal Reserve In curtailing the bond-buying program during the November meeting. 

Fed Committee member Bowman also indicated that she supports the speedy reduction of the Federal Reserve’s purchases of bonds, which amount to at least $ 120 billion per month, to end in mid-2022, explaining that benefiting from the Federal Reserve’s asset purchases is now likely to be burdened by cost, adding that it is particularly concerned that asset purchases are Valuations are pushed higher or continued accommodative Fed policy could lead to risks to inflation expectations. 

In contrast, investors are awaiting the release of the producer price index reading, which is an initial indicator of inflation, which may show a slowdown in growth to 0.6% compared to 0.7% last August, and the core reading of the same index may indicate a slowdown in growth to 0.5% compared to 0.6%, while the annual reading of the index may reflect an acceleration of growth to 8.7% compared to 8.3%, and the core annual reading shows an acceleration of growth to 7.1% compared to 6.7%. 

This comes in conjunction with the release of the unemployment claims index for the last week on October 9, which may reflect a decrease of 11 thousand applications to 315,000 applications, compared to 326 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading. This month, a decline of 39 thousand applications to 2,675 thousand applications, compared to 2,714 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading.

As members of the Federal Open Market Committee speak and Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostik participates in a virtual panel discussion on inclusive growth at an online event hosted by the Asen Institute, before Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Parkin speaks at the Cornell Club in New York, hours after... The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September 21-22 meeting.

Technical Analysis

It crossed the resistance of the bearish trend and settled above it, to start an upward correction for the decline that started from 1.1909 areas, and it needs to breach 1.1615 to confirm the extension of the bullish corrective wave towards levels of 1.1670 then 1.1760.

Therefore, the bullish bias will be likely for the upcoming period, supported by the move above the EMA50, noting that breaking 1.1560 will stop the expected rise and pressure the price to decline again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1530 support and 1.1670 . resistance.

The forecast trend for today: bullish