Australian dollar analysis 14.10.2021

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session, to witness its highest since the tenth of September against the US dollar, following the developments and economic data that we followed about the Australian economy and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today, Thursday, by the American economy, the largest economy in the world, which Includes speech by members of the Federal Open Market Committee. 

At exactly 04:08 am GMT, the Australian dollar pair rose against the US dollar by 0.03% to levels of 0.7380, compared to the opening levels at 0.7378, after the pair achieved its highest level in two months at 0.7395, while it achieved its lowest level at 0.7371.

We have followed from the Australian economy the speech of the Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia responsible for the Risk Management Committee Jay Debell about climate risks and the Australian financial system at an online conference hosted by the Association of Financial Analysts Australia, and this came before we witnessed the release of the Melbourne Institute reading of consumer expectations for inflation, which showed Growth slowed to 3.6%, compared to 4.4% in September.

The Australian labor market data was revealed with the release of the unemployment rate index, which showed an increase to 4.6% compared to 4.5% last August, below expectations that indicated it would rise to 4.8%. By 138.0 thousand jobs compared to 146.3 thousand jobs in August, contrary to expectations that indicated a decline of 108.5 thousand jobs.

Otherwise, investors are waiting for the US economy to release the PPI reading, which is an initial indicator of inflation, which may show a slowdown in growth to 0.6% compared to 0.7% in August, and the core reading of the same indicator may indicate a slowdown in growth to 0.5% compared to 0.6 %, while the annual reading of the index may reflect an acceleration of growth to 8.7% compared to 8.3%, and the core annual reading of the index also shows an acceleration of growth to 7.1% compared to 6.7%.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the unemployment claims index for the last week on October 9, which may reflect a decrease of 11 thousand applications to 315,000 applications, compared to 326 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading. This month, a decline of 39 thousand applications to 2,675 thousand applications, compared to 2,714 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading.

As members of the Federal Open Market Committee speak and Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostik participates in a virtual panel discussion on inclusive growth at an online event hosted by the Asen Institute, before Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Parkin speaks at the Cornell Club in New York, hours after... The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September 21-22 meeting.

Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar against the US dollar pair managed to breach the 0.7360 level and stabilize above it, which supports the continuation of our bullish trend effectively in the upcoming sessions, and it is approaching our awaited target at 0.7405, and chances are there to surpass this level and head towards the recently recorded top at 0.7478.

Therefore, the bullish bias will remain expected on the intraday term, noting that stability above 0.7360 represents the first condition for the continuation of the expected bullish wave.

The expected trading range for today is between the support 0.7350 and the resistance 0.7440

The forecast trend for today: bullish